How Expected Goals is Changing Football FOREVER!
Expected Goals (xG) is significantly changing the face of football betting like never before…
Bettors are already looking at how to modify playing attitude towards coping with this growing trend as this may change things forever.
Perhaps, you’ve been wondering how to improve your chances of winning in football predictions; this post will help you out.
But just before you go ahead to read up this short post, you’ll need to watch this video….
What does Expected Goals (xG) mean?
In simple terms, Expected Goals is an advanced yet simple measure of the chances a shot results in a goal.
Features of Expected Goals calculation
- Based on stats and facts
- Simplifies football predictions
- Accurate
- Makes football score results more predictable
How to calculate Expected Goals
There are factors to consider for the probability of a goal.
They include:
- Location of goal attempt: Chance of scoring from open play or set pieces varies.
- Distance from goal: A player at close range has a higher chance of scoring a goal; hence, higher xG value.
- Build-up to the shot: Is the shot a rebound or deflection?
- Angle of goal: xG drops in value when a player with a shot stays at a more acute angle.
- Shooting part: A player with the ball to his favorite scoring body part has a higher xG. Some players score with their left, right, or both feet; others are good with their heads.
In xG metric, there are two probabilities of 0 and 1. An xG of 1 means that there’s 100 percent chance that a player scores from a shot.
An 0 xG implies that a player has no chance of scoring with a shot. In sum, the higher the chance of scoring a goal with a shot, the higher the value assigned to the xG.
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How to improve success with Expected Goals
You can leverage the recent form of a playing team or the shooting player to determine the value of the xG. Besides, the talent level of the team or player in goal also informs the value you give to the xG.
Generally, non-penalty xG (npxG) offers a more accurate result, unlike the expected penalty goal (xPG) that comes with a lower value. These variables will only inform you but are not absolute in determining the value assigned to xG.
No doubt, Expected Goals is the future of football betting due to its higher accurate data analysis and results.
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