Top Betfair Trading Strategy (2019)
What’s the most effective trading strategy in 2019? (for Betfair)
Here’s a short sharp video explaining the key components…
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Transcription:
[00:00] So it’s a million dollar question: what makes the best Betfair trading strategy? In this video, I’m going to answer it fully.
[00:19] So I’m confident that this video will serve as a foundation to help you develop your thoughts and build a successful trading strategy, because trading is not some flash in the pan, get rich quick scheme.
[00:30] So there’s a few main areas I want to cover, but I’m going to fire straight into it and get straight on with things. Now, the first thing I’ve banged on about in so many times in so many different videos, it’s almost boring and whatever you do when you’re trading, if you want to win and you need to build a successful strategy, you gotta have an advantage or an edge. There’s no bullshit to it. It’s just how it is. There’s no magic system or golden bullet or any of that kind of stuff, but an edge is something significant within the market. For anybody who’s not seen that before, basically what is an edge?
[01:05] An edge is a speed advantage over the rest of the market. It’s the ability to read data live as it’s happening, understand what’s happening in the situation and react to that in good time, knowing the limitations in the market so you know, you can find biased situations to exploit and looking sort of where the longterm biases within any particular betting market or set of betting odds. It’s a useful piece of information essentially, which is not necessarily known to the majority. So, that’s what an edge is.
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[01:37] What isn’t an edge? An edge is pretty much all of the opposite of those things. So it’s not publicly available information. It’s not the blurb within the racing post or the verdict or some kind of tipping column. It’s not trainer form or whether a horse prefers a certain track and it’s certainly not oh, the bookie’s prices have shortened, so therefore there’s movement in this market, it’s an edge because the price is shortening. That’s not an edge.
[02:04] So, it’s quite obvious: you need to know something and it needs to be in one way or another, measurable because you need to know where it is on that range of potential movement. So, to do that you obviously need understanding, you need to be informed about the situation and the characteristics and limitations within that situation. So, that is what an edge and you need an edge to make any kind of successful strategy, let alone the best Betfair trading strategy and that also includes having live data, live information in front of you such as TV feeds and regular things that are updated.
[02:41] Now, moving on to the best Betfair trading strategy and what makes something that best is clearly one thing. And that is lack of competition within that situation and that set of variables. So, a primary example of that would be information that’s not widely available to the public. So if you know something about a particular horse in the race and I’m talking about like an inside job, inside information, and you know that the price is over inflated more than it should be, that would be significant edge over the rest of the market.
[03:18] I’m not talking about some joke kind of information Dave down the pub gets or stuff like that. I’m talking about when you actually know that something’s on and something’s of a price it shouldn’t be. So, if you think about this sort of lack of competition in terms of outside that market, look at businesses or something like that, things like monopolies and patents even in business, is because it allows the person that holds that situation or holds the controls in that situation to actually exploit it for a profit.
[03:53] So if you have an edge, you can exploit it and build that into that, that’s part of your strategy and exploiting it for a profit. So it’s quite clear cut. A distinct lack of competition is a real advantage in any of these kinds of situations.
[04:08] Now, what could that look like? Because I know that’s what you’re all itching to hear. Outside of the market, that could look like a sudden change. So it could be horse is down at the start of a race and something happens. Jockey gets thrown off or horse is withdrawn or certain behaviour offscreen like that, which could give you an advantage. Now, it would only be an advantage as long as you react to that quick enough. But that’s sort of an offscreen example.
[04:35] Another thing might be actually betting track side or court side if you’re talking about other sports such as tennis, but you’ve got the external element which is where you want a lack of a competition and then you’ve got the internal element as well, which is what these little tubes here are about.
[04:51] So recently we were talking about this on the community forum and I’ve got to give credit to guy Paul on the forum. We’ll flash him up on the screen or something. Who said that this is what he does to highlight the fact that there is a distinct advantage or biased situation within the market in his trading. I thought it was really quite cool. So what he’s done is cut four tubes in half and then put arrows on them. And then what he’s doing is reaffirming to himself here that, you know, I believe this price is going to go up, this price is going to go down. And then when he reaches a situation where it’s heavily biased like this, you’ve got three going down and one going up, that is a distinct lack of competition within the market and the prices pushing against each other, so that represents, you know, an edge at that point in time as well.
[05:38] So that could be inside the market, unlike outside example with the horses. So, you want that two V, one situation and you want to highlight what’s unfair and then you want to exploit it because that’s pretty much how the best potential edge you can have over any situation works.
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[05:58] To take that one step further, right? You’ve got to remember also you’re not the only person that’s going to be trading a market, and you’re not going to be the only person that’s trying to find a significant edge. So if you’re aware of, again, characteristics, limitations ahead of time, then you can be in the right place, at the right time, waiting to pull the trigger. A lot of successful trading is based around that as well.
[06:24] So not so long ago, I spoke at the Betfair VIP event, with Steve Howell, so I’ll give him credit for this, but he said it’s the bandwagon effect and I couldn’t put it any better and quite simply all he meant by that was you know that something’s happening, you’re first on, the crowd catches up and then you’re getting off, so you’re limiting your risk before the situation becomes a bit wishy-washy and it could go either way.
[06:50] So you see your advantage, you’re in there first, nice and early, you take the ride, you take the chunk and then you’re off before things get a bit heavy. So the bandwagon effect, anticipating the situation that’s going to happen and then reacting to it, reacting first, both in terms of getting on and getting off to limit your risk of in the market. So that would be a large part of the best kind of edge that could be made as well.
[07:18] So just to recap, your specific edge needs to be a lack of competition within the market or outside the market with that edge. And also you need to be quick to react and exploit that advantage at that point in time. Primary example of this would be trading tennis court side. So, people are outside of the match. That is an advantage in itself. That is an edge because there are obviously heavy TV delays and stuff like that.
[07:48] There’s minimal competition because people around the court are their only competition. Other people that are court side and like them. I believe there’s more than one set of people that do this in different sports, but that’s not a huge amount of competition. We’re not talking about thousands of people.
[08:02] And then obviously the time and the anticipation part of it is actually part of their edge because they’re ahead of the TV. But I’m pretty certain that they get off of those trades before the TV’s is even caught up. So That’s the bandwagon effect in full flow there for you as well.
[08:18] So, I think that highlights all those sort of main components that make up the best possible Betfair trading strategy and how it actually works for a little bit of background understanding for you guys on the other side of the YouTube channel here.